Amidst Democracy

Power Crisis: Nawaz Sharif Making The Right Moves

 Pakistan is going through the worst nightmare in its recent history in the shape of Power crisis, bringing the economic cycle to near stand still, wiping of Small and medium industry, making investors to shift their businesses to other countries, inflicting a loss of 1-2% of GDP to Economy every year. The irony is that this chaos was brought about by previous rulers, Mush and Zardari Regimes", corrupting the whole system from top to bottom, literally throwing the whole Nation into Dark ages. PMLN won the May 11 GE on the slogan that they have delivered in Punjab, were able to run a corruption free Government compared to other Provinces, their campaign was based on one Slogan that they are the one who can be trusted in solving this menace of energy crisis. Shehbaz Sharif in his speeches across Punjab convinced the people that he and his party can solve this crisis and tackle the bull head on.


We have seen in last two months or so of PMLN Government that whole focus has been shifted to solving energy crisis as promised in their campaign. Ishaq Dar promised to pay the circular debt to the tune of 506 billion rupees in 60 days. This must be mentioned here this circular debt monster was created by previous regimes, as they were not able to solve this issue until many IPPs threatened to invoke the sovereign guarantees, taking the Federal Government to the courts. One must appreciate and laud this historic achievement of PMLN that within the promised time frame they paid the money to different power companies both Public Sector and Private, as previous regimes failed for years to achieve the same feat. Many ignorants are blaming the Government that even after paying hundreds of billion there is still Load Shedding, they have no idea paying the debt is the National duty of the Government as these IPPs had stopped new investments for years, showing their reluctance to invest in a corrupt system, secondly invoking Sovereign Guarantees brings bad name to the country as International Investor confidence shakes  the Economy. Finally there was a false myth regarding the Installed Capacity of the country, many so called experts coming on Talk Shows claimed that it was close to 22,000 Megawatts, ( Many old and ailing plants running on 20-30% capacity, few were installed 50s, others in the 60s) while the stats shows it is hovering around 16,500 Megawatts which will be fully operational next month when Mangla runs to its full capacity. Right now the total electricity in the system is 15,400 Megawatts, on average 14,700 Megawatts to be precise. So paying circular debt has already shown rich dividends as compared to previous years, July this year, on average we were producing close to 12,400 Megawatts of electricity. Let's be fair to the Government the Load Shedding has been brought down considerably, from 12-18 hours on average to 8-10 hours which in itself is a big achievement.

But we  are still witnessing daily processions in different cities against Load Shedding, now the Question has arisen if the Government has been able to bring down Load Shedding to a bearable level, why these protests??. These protests are mainly due to two reasons. 1) The old and ailing WAPDA Infrastructure. 2) The areas where electricity theft is maximum.

Unfortunately Pakistan has faced worst possible Governments in the last decade or so. First it was dictator Mushraf who wasted billions and billions of Dollars and failed miserably to develop infrastructure and energy projects despite being the darling of the West,  getting billions of Dollars in Aid,  lack of vision, poor Governance and corruption costed Pakistan dearly, focus on consumer based economy, following a  Western model  but Mush Regime forgot the very fact that they are the developed countries!. Then he handed over the government to the NRO ridden Regime, which was marked as Economic Disaster , new records of loot and plunder were established, bankrupting the economy. During this Chaos the infrastructure of WAPDA was neglected, same old equipment which was past its life years ago was not replaced, Even historic floods during that era which literally destroyed the WAPDA infrastructure couldn't be replaced in many areas, above all terrorism, especially in KPK and Baluchistan costed billions of rupees to WAPDA, but alas no repair and maintenance was carried out, no new infrastructure was laid to cater the growing energy demand, corruption and nepotism hurried the collapse of whole system in energy sector. Now let me drop the real Bomb Shell, mismanagement and corruption has literally brought down the WAPDA infrastructure, it wouldn't be able to carry electricity to the consumers even if the Government starts producing the required demand tomorrow, according to recent stats maximum 16,000 Megawatts of electricity can be transmitted through this system, which in itself  is associated with false trippings, fluctuations and  in many places results in system break down.

Line Losses to the tune of 25-28% are costing the National exchequer 220 billion rupees a year, 90 billion of which goes in theft, PESCO, HESCO are setting new records in theft with 39% and 37%  respectively. Federal Government has already evolved a comprehensive strategy to deal with these "Chors" with iron hands. Largest ever campaign against these "chores"  is in full swing, particularly Punjab with Shehbaz Sharif leading the way, data have shown that in one month of drive close to 300 million cubic feet of Gas, 86 Megawatts of electricity have been saved, hundreds of FIRs and   arrests have been carried out. Now Question arises, Punjab where  recovery is highest in the country, theft to such an extent was occurring, one can easily imagine the scenario in KPK,Sindh and Baluchistan where line losses are touching new highs. "I think CMs of other Provinces should come forward, lead this drive against theft and corruption to its ultimate end".


                             
Comprehensive Energy Paper presented in Council Of Common Interest has suggested punishments and fines against these "chores". The most important part of that Energy Paper is to reduce Electricity prices in next three to four years, ( By shifting the energy mix to Coal, Hydro, Solar, Nuclear, Bio Energy, Baggass, Wind etc.)  as for now a single unit of electricity is  costing the Government of Pakistan close to 16 rupees. ( 12 rupees Generation cost, 2 rupee administration cost, 2 rupees in Line Losses). Similarly rationalizing the tariff while protecting the life poor consumers (200 units a month) which are close to 85% of total, gradual closure of CNG stations, ( estimated 300 million cubic feet is stolen yearly), rationalizing gas prices of Fertilizer sector ( 4500 rupees per DAP bag), complete overhaul of the system with merit based appointments, eliminating corrupt mafia from the system are the few highlights and promises made in the energy policy of PMLN . A stumbling block between Federal and Provisional Governments may arise as the Federal Government is planning to deduct electricity price from the NFC award of the  respective province.


As  explained earlier the corruption and nepotism has brought the whole energy system down, it needs sincere, honest and continuous effort to get us out of this mess, this corrupt racket is deep rooted,  mafia protect each others interest from top to bottom. The commitment shown by this Government in the first two months is commendable and must be lauded   but it needs a sustained effort. Mian  Nawaz Sharif is taking a strict action against the Media reports of a scam in revised estimates of Nandi Pur Power Projects. It Seems Shehbaz Sharif  is playing a key rule , present in almost every energy meeting, negotiating and making key decisions. Having said all this Media must be careful as well, as Television campaign running on a Channel convincing people of Pakistan that shutting down CNG stations, cutting Gas supply to fertilizer sector and rationalizing the tariff may aid hundred of thousands of Megawatt's, which in fact is not the case, all these measures can lead to affordable electricity and importantly wouldn't allow the Jinny of circular debt to rise again but will not increase a single Megawatts of electricity. After paying circular debt, IPPs  are running to their capacity except three IPPs of 300 Megawatt's which are settling their pending issues with the Government of Pakistan.

 Finally let me share my personal experience with you guys before finishing my read, "A year back I was notified by WAPDA to install our own transfer in our Hospital  because our consumption of electricity was a cause of distress and annoyance to the locality, causing tripping and regular power break downs. We were served a 600K Demand notice to deposit the amount within 45 days for installation of transformer, as a concerned citizen we obliged and deposited the money, it is over a year, now we have been asked to pay  more as a token of love to install the transformer, all the trippings, fluctuations, breakdowns, concerns of the locality doesn't matter now".
Even lowest ranked employee's in WAPDA have become millionaires What to talk of big fish.

Lastly it would be an historic event in the history of Pakistan, if this government brings Load shedding and terrorism to a manageable limit of 3-4 years' time.

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