Amidst Democracy

Written by Dr. Faisal Ranjha 

Imran Khan PTI flanked by his party stalwarts presented a White Paper on rigging in GE 2013, the Elections which were endorsed by many International and Local Independent observers, with complaints of rigging at select Polling Booth's ( Few Hundreds ). Lets appreciate the effort of PTI that they want this electoral process transparent and free of Executive Power, Imran Khan was very candid, he categorically accepted the results of GE 2013 but at the same time showed apprehensions at the reports of alleged rigging, he clearly stated that they want this system to move on but at the same time demanding his grievances regarding alleged rigging must be addressed.

Imran raised few Questions in his Press Conference, while unveiling his White Paper. 1) While all the Tsunami Wave was riding with PTI, how on earth PMLN got so many votes in the GE. The answer to this Question is very simple, PMLN got close to 7 million votes in GE 2007-08, while Q League ( Muslim League Vote )  got millions of vote as well ( infect more than PMLN ),  which as soon as Dictator Mushraf Umbrella was removed, automatically switched to PML plus Shehbaz Sharif played pivotal role in organizing PMLN at grass root level, taking all the influential of the area and PMLQ members on his side, creating a huge Bradari vote bank. Secondly Shehbaz Sharif hard work in Punjab created a new vote bank "Youth Factor" which also tilted to some extent to PMLN. Still I do feel the beneficiary of GE 2013 was "Imran Khan and PTI", taking 7.5 million votes starting from a zero  while PMLN taking the Muslim League vote of 14.5 million. 2) Imran Khan PTI raised the second Question,  Jehangir Tareen was winning by 30k votes in the night, while the next day he was declared loser. Again the answer is very simple, PMLN candidate Omer Ayub in fact was declared winner by TV Channels (40k), but after two days when the final tally was compiled he lost the seat. Similarly another PMLN candidate from Rahim Yar Khan met the same fate. May be TV channels was rushing the results as well in a rat race of ratings while still 40-50% results from Polling Stations were  awaited. 3) Imran Khan third Question was that he trusted the Election Commission of Pakistan that they be able to hold free and fair GE so he got relaxed. Again we all know Imran Khan declared many a times in his Public and Media appearances before GE that he prepared army of "Tabdeli Razakar" of hundred of thousands,  will make sure there is no rigging on Polling day. Now Question arises whether there was  an army of Hundred Of Thousands of Tabdeli Razakars or they never appeared on Election day ??. 4) Imran Fourth question is that Caretaker setups were preplanned and all the Election Staff was placed according to will and desire of Executives of Federal and Provinces. Now again the Question arises, if we stick and admit to this theory, then what about KPK, why Imran Khan was able to win big there ??. Secondly the "ROs", a Session Judge ( Meaning Head Of Judiciary in a District ), given by respected Chief Justices of Provinces, tasked by the Election Commission of Pakistan in different districts, what Executive had to do with this??. 5) Another point raised by Imran Khan that Mian Nawaz Sharif declared himself victorious at 10.30 PM, claiming a clear mandate  while the counting was not over. All the major parties run Election Cells in their offices, collecting minute by minute details from different constituencies, compiling details of their winning and losing candidates. I give you an example of Gujranwala, where PMLN clean swept the GE, we knew the results of all the seats by 8 o'clock, except Pervaiz Ellahi Gujrat seat where there was a tight contest, if  we were able to get results I am sure Nawaz Sharif would have been getting the feedback and results as well ??. 6) Finally Imran Claims of Media being biased and giving more coverage to other parties doesn't sound right as well because we all witnessed a barrage of Ads by all parties, Media remained impartial during GE 2013, few showing tilt to different parties that is acceptable and happens round the World.

Now let us discuss the by Elections happening today, why the stakes are so high, why everyone so desperate to win them. These are the largest ever By Elections held in the history of Pakistan, 41 seats NA  ( National Assembly ) and PA ( Provincial Assembly ), across Pakistan covering almost all the major cities of Pakistan, Peshawar, Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, Sargodha, Mianwali, Baluchistan Cities etc.

Imran Khan PTI has put some serious effort in these by Elections, holding rallies across the country, he is on a campaign trail. Many analysts are calling these By Elections a litmus test for many including PTI and PMLN, which gained popular vote bank in GE 2013. Imran Khan PTI, I guess wants to prove a point  that his Tsunami Mantra still exists and his claims of alleged rigging are not just mere allegations, he remained politically alienated after the unfortunate accident leading to his back Injury. PMLN on the other hand, bringing in the Young Hamza Shebaz to run their by Election campaign as Shebaz Sharif seems very busy in floods, which devastated  Punjab and KPK, displacing hundred of thousands, killing close to 150 people, destroying crops, animals reminding us the devastation of 2010-11 Floods.

Imran Khan PTI is perhaps missing the trick once again, pitching himself against Hamza Shebaz, raising the tempo to such an extent may prove a very grave mistake. Even if PTI wins few seats and PMLN loses few, they can always come up with the excuse that neither of their Big Guns participated in By Election campaign, while if PTI fails to secure their seats after this hectic effort of Imran, it will be a big blow to PTI, while PMLN will take credit  of winning the by Elections without their leadership running the campaign, Secondly it will be a blow to Imran claims of rigging in GE 2013.

The odds of PTI claiming victory are very thin, historically by Elections are  won by parties ruling in the provinces or Party ruling the center. PPP and PMLQ lost the majority of their seats to PMLN in "PUNJAB" by Elections held after fake degree saga post 2007-08 GE. While PPP and allies were able to retain all the seats in their ruling Provinces. Secondly turn during By Elections remain very thin, again favoring the ruling parties in the Provinces. PMLN running its campaign very smartly once again, Hamza Shebaz taking all the credit of reduced Load Shedding in different parts of the country, country wide strike down on Gas and Electricity theft carried out by PMLN led Federal Government. While Imran on the other hand focusing on corruption, corrupt practices of Parliamentarians, reforms he introduced in KPK and a pledge to  make a difference in KPK Governance model soon.

Election Commission of Pakistan very smartly once again asked "Fafen" to observe the by Election as Independent Observers, secondly taking some stringent measures to make these by Elections very transparent and free, first time in history of Pakistan, the Army will be deployed inside the Polling Booth's  on select Polling stations. It was necessary as well after Imran's Press Conference yesterday, criticizing the ECP role in GE 2013, their inability to conduct free and fair Polls.